March Madness Outlook: Teams in the Preseason Top 25 That Could Miss the NCAA Tournament

As college basketball season heats up, all eyes are on the teams ranked in the AP Top 25. However, history shows that at least one of these teams tends to stumble, failing to make it to the NCAA Tournament. In fact, statistics suggest that since 2012, an average of four teams ranked in the preseason poll don’t even make it to March Madness. Just last season, the listed teams that missed the cut included No. 17 Indiana, No. 20 Cincinnati, and No. 25 Rutgers.

This trend was glaringly illustrated by North Carolina last season, marking the first time a preseason No. 1 team did not qualify for the tournament. Such examples raise the question: which teams might follow in their footsteps this year?

One team’s bubble status is reportedly Creighton. They lost their top three players from last season, including All-American Ryan Kalkbrenner, and now sit at 41st in preseason rankings according to KenPom. While they are sitting in the AP Top 25, some experts are skeptical about their chances based on these major losses.

Another team to watch is Wisconsin. With key players like John Tonje and Max Klesmit gone, there’s concern over their ability to compete in the tough Big Ten conference, which could hinder their chances of making it.

Adding to the uncertainty is Auburn, transitioning coaches with Bruce Pearl stepping down. Experts believe that this change could lead to a significant downgrade, making it challenging for the Tigers to remain competitive in a demanding SEC landscape.

Michigan State also faces a daunting challenge. Head coach Tom Izzo has led them to 27 straight tournaments, but the current roster lacks star power, with no preseason All-Americans or transfers capable of making a huge impact.

Lastly, let’s not overlook North Carolina again. With a talented roster but significant departures, their season’s success may hinge on nonconference games against heavy hitters like Kansas and Kentucky. They face a challenge in making up for the loss of star player RJ Davis, raising questions about their ability to secure signature wins.

As the season unfolds, fans need to keep an eye on these teams and how they perform against expectations. It’s an exhilarating time in college basketball as programs strive to prove that early rankings don’t always represent their true capabilities.